Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
37%57%
Sashi · 15 mapsedge BIG +20%BIG · 3 maps
NukeBIG ban
53%50%
Sashi · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BIG · 4 maps
AncientBIG pick
50%64%
Sashi · 6 mapsedge BIG +14%BIG · 7 maps
InfernoSashi pick
78%67%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +11%BIG · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%60%
Sashi · 8 mapsedge Sashi +7%BIG · 1 map
MirageSashi ban
40%42%
Sashi · 1 mapnearly even -2%BIG · 8 maps
AnubisBIG ban
67%60%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +7%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickBIG take Ancient
5. BanBIG remove Nuke
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Sashi 60%BIG 40%
The model gave 60% on Sashi — the map was taken by BIG.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Sashi 61%BIG 39%
The model gave 61% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Sashi 36%BIG 64%
The model gave 64% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 64%
Series resultBIG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3