Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
41%56%
1win · 13 mapsedge Acend +15%Acend · 23 maps
Dust21win pick
61%55%
1win · 14 mapsedge 1win +6%Acend · 16 maps
AncientAcend ban
67%47%
1win · 11 mapsedge 1win +20%Acend · 13 maps
Inferno1win ban
71%67%
1win · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Acend · 14 maps
OverpassAcend ban
33%36%
1win · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Acend · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
64%38%
1win · 7 mapsedge 1win +26%Acend · 4 maps
Anubis1win ban
33%67%
1win · 8 mapsedge Acend +34%Acend · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Anubis
2. BanAcend remove Ancient
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Overpass
6. Ban1win remove Inferno
DeciderCache (64% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
1win 18%Acend 82%
The model gave 82% on Acend — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
1win 72%Acend 28%
The model gave 72% on 1win — the map was taken by Acend.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
1win 56%Acend 44%
The model gave 56% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 61%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3