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Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BC.Game#60 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
79%38%
100 Thieves · 15 mapsedge 100 Thieves +41%BC.Game · 4 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
62%60%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +2%BC.Game · 6 maps
AncientBC.Game ban
59%50%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsedge 100 Thieves +9%BC.Game · 0 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
50%57%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge BC.Game +7%BC.Game · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%67%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge BC.Game +13%BC.Game · 2 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
38%40%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsnearly even -2%BC.Game · 1 map
CacheBC.Game pick
50%75%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge BC.Game +25%BC.Game · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanBC.Game remove Ancient
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickBC.Game take Cache
5. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (54% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
100 Thieves 34%BC.Game 66%
The model gave 66% on BC.Game — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
100 Thieves 46%BC.Game 54%
The model gave 54% on BC.Game — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
100 Thieves 47%BC.Game 53%
The model gave 53% on BC.Game — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 61%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3