Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SAW#61 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientK27 pick
60%45%
K27 · 11 mapsedge K27 +15%SAW · 7 maps
MirageSAW ban
61%50%
K27 · 14 mapsedge K27 +11%SAW · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
64%46%
K27 · 7 mapsedge K27 +18%SAW · 9 maps
NukeSAW pick
24%50%
K27 · 13 mapsedge SAW +26%SAW · 2 maps
AnubisK27 ban
44%40%
K27 · 5 mapsnearly even +4%SAW · 6 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%71%
K27 · 0 mapsedge SAW +21%SAW · 10 maps
OverpassSAW ban
60%50%
K27 · 6 mapsedge K27 +10%SAW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickK27 take Ancient
4. PickSAW take Nuke
5. BanSAW remove Overpass
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (64% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
K27 21%SAW 79%
The model gave 79% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
K27 53%SAW 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
K27 64%SAW 36%
The model gave 64% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 83%
Series resultK27 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3