NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
59%60%
Lavked · 33 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
42%50%
Lavked · 20 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +8%ex-RUSTEC · 2 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
55%50%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +5%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
75%50%
Lavked · 12 mapsedge Lavked +25%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
31%40%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +9%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
54%50%
Lavked · 9 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%50%
Lavked · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
6. BanLavked remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Lavked 39%ex-RUSTEC 61%
The model gave 61% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Lavked 52%ex-RUSTEC 48%
The model gave 52% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Lavked 54%ex-RUSTEC 46%
The model gave 54% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 53%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3