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BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
4%96%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
79%70%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +9%Falcons · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
59%62%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Falcons · 9 maps
MirageFalcons ban
55%43%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%Falcons · 10 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
57%50%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Falcons · 6 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
46%56%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 5 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
43%75%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge Falcons +32%Falcons · 4 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. BanFalcons remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (59% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
100 Thieves 44%Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
100 Thieves 58%Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
100 Thieves 20%Falcons 80%
The model gave 80% on Falcons — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 96%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3