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CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
paiN Academy#286 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Grêmio ban
50%39%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge Grêmio +11%paiN Academy · 14 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
40%42%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even -2%paiN Academy · 15 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%54%
Grêmio · 0 mapsnearly even -4%paiN Academy · 9 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
60%60%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even +0%paiN Academy · 6 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
60%40%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +20%paiN Academy · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +7%paiN Academy · 5 maps
OverpasspaiN Academy ban
50%43%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +7%paiN Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Overpass
6. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
Grêmio 72%paiN Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on Grêmio — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Grêmio 58%paiN Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
Grêmio 50%paiN Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on Grêmio — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Academy · 53%
Series resultpaiN Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3