Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
55%69%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Falcons +14%Falcons · 12 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
73%56%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Legacy +17%Falcons · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%56%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Falcons +12%Falcons · 5 maps
MirageFalcons ban
63%40%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +23%Falcons · 6 maps
NukeLegacy ban
38%63%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Falcons +25%Falcons · 4 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%67%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 5 maps
CacheFalcons ban
50%50%
Legacy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanFalcons remove Mirage
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. BanFalcons remove Cache
6. BanLegacy remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (44% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Legacy 74%Falcons 26%
The model gave 74% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Legacy 33%Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Falcons — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 85%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2