European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
57%52%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%CYBERSHOKE · 17 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
58%63%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +5%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
55%56%
Eternal Fire · 7 mapsnearly even -1%CYBERSHOKE · 12 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
57%46%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +11%CYBERSHOKE · 9 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%44%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsedge Eternal Fire +6%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
44%43%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsnearly even +1%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
CacheCYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Cache
6. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (44% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Eternal Fire 42%CYBERSHOKE 58%
The model gave 58% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Eternal Fire 58%CYBERSHOKE 42%
The model gave 58% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Eternal Fire 48%CYBERSHOKE 52%
The model gave 52% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 51%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3