?
arrow_backBack to match
NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
71%61%
INOX Division · 20 mapsedge INOX Division +10%Inner Circle Academy · 14 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
63%45%
INOX Division · 20 mapsedge INOX Division +18%Inner Circle Academy · 7 maps
AncientInner Circle Academy ban
60%58%
INOX Division · 11 mapsnearly even +2%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
57%40%
INOX Division · 17 mapsedge INOX Division +17%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
56%67%
INOX Division · 12 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
40%63%
INOX Division · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +23%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%67%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickINOX Division take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Ancient
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
INOX Division 26%Inner Circle Academy 74%
The model gave 74% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
INOX Division 69%Inner Circle Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
INOX Division 52%Inner Circle Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 60%
Series resultINOX Division 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3