Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phantom#70 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
69%55%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +14%Phantom · 16 maps
Anubispossible decider
75%44%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +31%Phantom · 5 maps
CachePhantom ban
73%33%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +40%Phantom · 2 maps
Dust2Phantom ban
55%50%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +5%Phantom · 6 maps
InfernoPhantom pick
63%73%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge Phantom +10%Phantom · 7 maps
Miragefnatic ban
38%44%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge Phantom +6%Phantom · 5 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%46%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Phantom · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Cache
3. Pickfnatic take Ancient
4. PickPhantom take Inferno
5. BanPhantom remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (75% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
fnatic 36%Phantom 64%
The model gave 64% on Phantom — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
fnatic 58%Phantom 42%
The model gave 58% on fnatic — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
fnatic 43%Phantom 57%
The model gave 57% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 62%
Series resultPhantom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3