Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#61 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#104 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
67%60%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge Betclic +7%ASTRAL · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
55%62%
Betclic · 7 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 9 maps
AnubisBetclic ban
50%56%
Betclic · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +6%ASTRAL · 5 maps
CacheBetclic pick
56%44%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge Betclic +12%ASTRAL · 5 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
63%40%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge Betclic +23%ASTRAL · 6 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
63%50%
Betclic · 4 mapsedge Betclic +13%ASTRAL · 4 maps
DefaultBetclic ban
50%67%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%ASTRAL · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Default
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. PickBetclic take Cache
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
6. BanBetclic remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (55% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Betclic 40%ASTRAL 60%
The model gave 60% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Betclic.
Ancientprediction missed15:19
Betclic 60%ASTRAL 40%
The model gave 60% on Betclic — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Betclic 63%ASTRAL 37%
The model gave 63% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 70%
Series resultBetclic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3