Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
JiJieHao#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
60%63%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Eternal Fire · 12 maps
MirageJiJieHao pick
60%56%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Eternal Fire · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%56%
JiJieHao · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%Eternal Fire · 12 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire ban
40%60%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%54%
JiJieHao · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Eternal Fire · 9 maps
AnubisJiJieHao ban
38%63%
JiJieHao · 4 mapsedge Eternal Fire +25%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
DefaultJiJieHao ban
50%57%
JiJieHao · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJiJieHao remove Anubis
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. PickJiJieHao take Mirage
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Dust2
6. BanJiJieHao remove Default
DeciderCache (44% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
JiJieHao 24%Eternal Fire 76%
The model gave 76% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
JiJieHao 57%Eternal Fire 43%
The model gave 57% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 61%
Series resultJiJieHao 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2