European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DDrama#143 in the world · win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked ban
35%57%
Lavked · 19 mapsedge Drama +22%Drama · 3 maps
AncientDrama pick
39%75%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Drama +36%Drama · 4 maps
Dust2Lavked pick
58%33%
Lavked · 15 mapsedge Lavked +25%Drama · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Lavked · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Drama · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
33%50%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Drama +17%Drama · 2 maps
AnubisDrama ban
56%40%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Lavked +16%Drama · 1 map
DefaultDrama ban
43%50%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Drama +7%Drama · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanDrama remove Anubis
3. PickLavked take Dust2
4. PickDrama take Ancient
5. BanDrama remove Default
6. BanLavked remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Lavked 43%Drama 57%
The model gave 57% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrama · 53%
Series resultDrama 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1