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European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Saint Sinners#168 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
mellren#118 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
50%67%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge mellren +17%mellren · 11 maps
Dust2mellren ban
50%55%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge mellren +5%mellren · 7 maps
InfernoSaint Sinners pick
50%55%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge mellren +5%mellren · 7 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
50%60%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 6 maps
AnubisSaint Sinners ban
50%71%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge mellren +21%mellren · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 1 map
Nukemellren ban
40%33%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Saint Sinners +7%mellren · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickSaint Sinners take Inferno
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Dust2
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Saint Sinners 42%mellren 58%
The model gave 58% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Nukeprediction correct22:20
Saint Sinners 60%mellren 40%
The model gave 60% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Saint Sinners 33%mellren 67%
The model gave 67% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 68%
Series resultmellren 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3