European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#105 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Honvéd#209 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
41%54%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsedge Honvéd +13%Honvéd · 35 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
43%52%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Honvéd · 27 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
48%36%
G2 Ares · 21 mapedge G2 Ares +12%Honvéd · 10 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
53%50%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Honvéd · 14 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
40%40%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 11 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%71%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge Honvéd +11%Honvéd · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
G2 Ares 65%Honvéd 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
G2 Ares 34%Honvéd 66%
The model gave 66% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
G2 Ares 42%Honvéd 58%
The model gave 58% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 58%
Series resultHonvéd 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3