European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · win 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNexus pick
44%50%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge DragonClaw +6%DragonClaw · 0 maps
DefaultDragonClaw ban
50%25%
Nexus · 0 mapsedge Nexus +25%DragonClaw · 4 maps
AncientDragonClaw ban
67%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Nexus +17%DragonClaw · 0 maps
CacheDragonClaw pick
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
MirageNexus ban
40%50%
Nexus · 1 mapedge DragonClaw +10%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Mirage
2. BanDragonClaw remove Default
3. PickNexus take Anubis
4. PickDragonClaw take Cache
5. BanDragonClaw remove Ancient
6. BanNexus remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Nexus 75%DragonClaw 25%
The model gave 75% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 54%
Series resultNexus 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1