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European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-RUSTEC#79 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
58%43%
ex-RUSTEC · 32 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +15%NAVI Junior · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
64%46%
ex-RUSTEC · 21 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +18%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
42%45%
ex-RUSTEC · 22 mapsnearly even -3%NAVI Junior · 7 maps
MirageNAVI Junior pick
53%69%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge NAVI Junior +16%NAVI Junior · 12 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
47%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
50%33%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%36%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%NAVI Junior · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (64% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
ex-RUSTEC 31%NAVI Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
ex-RUSTEC 68%NAVI Junior 32%
The model gave 68% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
ex-RUSTEC 47%NAVI Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 62%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3