European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Vexar#141 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%48%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsnearly even +2%Vexar · 19 maps
DefaultDragonClaw ban
22%45%
DragonClaw · 5 mapsedge Vexar +23%Vexar · 7 maps
MirageDragonClaw ban
50%56%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge Vexar +6%Vexar · 12 maps
NukeDragonClaw pick
50%36%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +14%Vexar · 10 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%30%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge DragonClaw +20%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%56%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge Vexar +6%Vexar · 5 maps
InfernoVexar ban
50%56%
DragonClaw · 0 mapsedge Vexar +6%Vexar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDragonClaw remove Default
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickDragonClaw take Nuke
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Inferno
6. BanDragonClaw remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
DragonClaw 26%Vexar 74%
The model gave 74% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 55%
Series resultVexar 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1