European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy pick
56%57%
Vexar · 12 mapsnearly even -1%Entropy · 33 maps
AncientVexar pick
48%56%
Vexar · 19 mapsedge Entropy +8%Entropy · 14 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
56%26%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Vexar +30%Entropy · 15 maps
AnubisVexar ban
30%41%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Entropy +11%Entropy · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%47%
Vexar · 8 mapsnearly even +3%Entropy · 11 maps
CacheVexar ban
50%50%
Vexar · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 16 maps
NukeEntropy ban
36%56%
Vexar · 10 mapsedge Entropy +20%Entropy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Cache
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickEntropy take Mirage
5. BanEntropy remove Nuke
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Vexar 45%Entropy 55%
The model gave 55% on Entropy — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Vexar 46%Entropy 54%
The model gave 54% on Entropy — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 57%
Series resultVexar 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2