European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
47%49%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 31 map
CacheQUAZAR pick
65%43%
QUAZAR · 13 mapsedge QUAZAR +22%Misa · 24 maps
AnubisMisa pick
54%53%
QUAZAR · 9 mapsnearly even +1%Misa · 26 maps
MirageMisa ban
65%44%
QUAZAR · 13 mapsedge QUAZAR +21%Misa · 21 map
NukeMisa ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 11 mapsedge QUAZAR +10%Misa · 16 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
55%56%
QUAZAR · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Misa · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%33%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
2. BanMisa remove Mirage
3. PickQUAZAR take Cache
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
QUAZAR 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
QUAZAR 48%Misa 52%
The model gave 52% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction missed12:16
QUAZAR 71%Misa 29%
The model gave 71% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 66%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3