European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
41%63%
Leo · 23 mapsedge Saint Sinners +22%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
NukeLeo pick
82%44%
Leo · 18 mapsedge Leo +38%Saint Sinners · 5 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
40%43%
Leo · 16 mapsnearly even -3%Saint Sinners · 3 maps
MirageLeo ban
38%38%
Leo · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
AnubisLeo ban
38%50%
Leo · 9 mapsedge Saint Sinners +12%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
CacheSaint Sinners ban
42%40%
Leo · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Saint Sinners · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
25%44%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Saint Sinners +19%Saint Sinners · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Anubis
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
6. BanLeo remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (25% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Leo 48%Saint Sinners 52%
The model gave 52% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Leo 86%Saint Sinners 14%
The model gave 86% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Leo 47%Saint Sinners 53%
The model gave 53% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 60%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3