European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#166 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2The Last Resort ban
47%44%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Nexus · 5 maps
NukeNexus ban
61%40%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%Nexus · 1 map
CacheThe Last Resort pick
67%40%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsedge The Last Resort +27%Nexus · 6 maps
AncientThe Last Resort ban
31%71%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsedge Nexus +40%Nexus · 3 maps
AnubisNexus pick
56%50%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%Nexus · 6 maps
InfernoNexus ban
50%43%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%Nexus · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%60%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Nexus · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Ancient
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickThe Last Resort take Cache
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Inferno
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
The Last Resort 77%Nexus 23%
The model gave 77% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Nexus.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
The Last Resort 14%Nexus 86%
The model gave 86% on Nexus — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
The Last Resort 56%Nexus 44%
The model gave 56% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 54%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3