European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
45%68%
PsychoFace · 7 mapsedge mellren +23%mellren · 15 maps
Dust2PsychoFace pick
54%55%
PsychoFace · 9 mapsnearly even -1%mellren · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%60%
PsychoFace · 4 mapsedge mellren +22%mellren · 11 maps
Nukemellren ban
40%20%
PsychoFace · 6 mapsedge PsychoFace +20%mellren · 6 maps
Ancientmellren ban
60%62%
PsychoFace · 1 mapnearly even -2%mellren · 9 maps
AnubisPsychoFace ban
40%71%
PsychoFace · 1 mapedge mellren +31%mellren · 3 maps
DefaultPsychoFace ban
50%50%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsnearly even +0%mellren · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Ancient
6. BanPsychoFace remove Default
DeciderInferno (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
PsychoFace 25%mellren 75%
The model gave 75% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
PsychoFace 75%mellren 25%
The model gave 75% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
PsychoFace 48%mellren 52%
The model gave 52% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 55%
Series resultmellren 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3