European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
55%74%
Vexar · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +19%Bushido Wildcats · 43 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%57%
Vexar · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Bushido Wildcats · 33 maps
NukeVexar ban
40%52%
Vexar · 11 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +12%Bushido Wildcats · 27 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
54%40%
Vexar · 22 mapsedge Vexar +14%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
30%50%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Bushido Wildcats · 12 maps
CacheVexar ban
50%59%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +9%Bushido Wildcats · 18 maps
InfernoVexar pick
60%40%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Vexar +20%Bushido Wildcats · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Cache
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickVexar take Inferno
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
6. BanVexar remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
Vexar 27%Bushido Wildcats 73%
The model gave 73% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Vexar.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Vexar 41%Bushido Wildcats 59%
The model gave 59% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Vexar 69%Bushido Wildcats 31%
The model gave 69% on Vexar — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 63%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3