European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
63%55%
PCIFIC · 20 mapsedge PCIFIC +8%mellren · 7 maps
Miragemellren pick
50%68%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge mellren +18%mellren · 18 maps
Nukemellren ban
40%25%
PCIFIC · 16 mapsedge PCIFIC +15%mellren · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%56%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 12 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
31%71%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge mellren +40%mellren · 3 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%67%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge mellren +17%mellren · 11 maps
Cachemellren ban
60%50%
PCIFIC · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%mellren · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. Banmellren remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Nuke
6. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (46% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
PCIFIC 61%mellren 39%
The model gave 61% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
PCIFIC 29%mellren 71%
The model gave 71% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 52%
Series resultmellren 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2