NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
69%57%
SPARTA · 32 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Leo · 24 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
39%50%
SPARTA · 19 mapsedge Leo +11%Leo · 14 maps
NukeLeo pick
53%65%
SPARTA · 15 mapsedge Leo +12%Leo · 13 maps
MirageLeo ban
52%40%
SPARTA · 19 mapsedge SPARTA +12%Leo · 6 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
43%32%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge SPARTA +11%Leo · 15 maps
InfernoLeo ban
47%60%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge Leo +13%Leo · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
54%50%
SPARTA · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Leo · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderCache (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
SPARTA 36%Leo 64%
The model gave 64% on Leo — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
SPARTA 66%Leo 34%
The model gave 66% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 52%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2