Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#91 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
55%57%
Sashi · 16 mapsnearly even -2%Sangal · 3 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
42%33%
Sashi · 15 mapsedge Sashi +9%Sangal · 2 maps
CacheSashi pick
65%57%
Sashi · 13 mapsedge Sashi +8%Sangal · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
43%33%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge Sashi +10%Sangal · 2 maps
AnubisSangal pick
63%57%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +6%Sangal · 3 maps
InfernoSangal ban
64%50%
Sashi · 7 mapsedge Sashi +14%Sangal · 0 maps
MirageSashi ban
40%43%
Sashi · 1 mapnearly even -3%Sangal · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickSashi take Cache
4. PickSangal take Anubis
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (55% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Sashi 45%Sangal 55%
The model gave 55% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Sashi 61%Sangal 39%
The model gave 61% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 65%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2