Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
44%71%
Johnny Speeds · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +27%Virtus.pro · 17 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
33%59%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +26%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%75%
Johnny Speeds · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds pick
57%42%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +15%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
50%46%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
CacheJohnny Speeds ban
40%58%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +18%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
70%50%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +20%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Anubis
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
Johnny Speeds 35%Virtus.pro 65%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Johnny Speeds 22%Virtus.pro 78%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2