Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEAC pick
52%69%
EAC · 17 mapsedge fnatic +17%fnatic · 12 maps
Miragefnatic ban
43%33%
EAC · 19 mapsedge EAC +10%fnatic · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%75%
EAC · 14 mapsedge fnatic +25%fnatic · 8 maps
Cachefnatic pick
57%73%
EAC · 10 mapsedge fnatic +16%fnatic · 11 maps
InfernoEAC ban
38%67%
EAC · 9 mapsedge fnatic +29%fnatic · 5 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%50%
EAC · 1 mapedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickEAC take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct22:20
EAC 63%fnatic 37%
The model gave 63% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
EAC 23%fnatic 77%
The model gave 77% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
EAC 33%fnatic 67%
The model gave 67% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 71%
Series resultfnatic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3