Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
63%63%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 12 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
53%44%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsedge Eternal Fire +9%ASTRAL · 5 maps
CacheASTRAL pick
56%44%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%ASTRAL · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
64%40%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +24%ASTRAL · 6 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
54%50%
Eternal Fire · 9 mapsnearly even +4%ASTRAL · 2 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
56%56%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 5 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%57%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickASTRAL take Cache
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (64% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Eternal Fire 51%ASTRAL 49%
The model gave 51% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Eternal Fire 75%ASTRAL 25%
The model gave 75% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 62%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2