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Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
53%60%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsedge Betclic +7%Betclic · 6 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
63%60%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Betclic · 6 maps
CacheBetclic pick
56%56%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 5 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
67%63%
Eternal Fire · 11 mapsnearly even +4%Betclic · 4 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
56%46%
Eternal Fire · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Betclic · 9 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Betclic · 0 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%58%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Betclic +8%Betclic · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickBetclic take Cache
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (53% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
Eternal Fire 54%Betclic 46%
The model gave 54% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Betclic.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
Eternal Fire 56%Betclic 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Eternal Fire 53%Betclic 47%
The model gave 53% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 60%
Series resultBetclic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3