Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
65%60%
Astralis · 13 mapsedge Astralis +5%Betclic · 6 maps
CacheBetclic pick
64%60%
Astralis · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Betclic · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%55%
Astralis · 6 mapsedge Betclic +15%Betclic · 7 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
40%43%
Astralis · 1 mapnearly even -3%Betclic · 10 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
22%57%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge Betclic +35%Betclic · 3 maps
MirageAstralis ban
43%56%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Betclic +13%Betclic · 5 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
50%50%
Astralis · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickBetclic take Cache
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (40% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
Astralis 33%Betclic 67%
The model gave 67% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Astralis 58%Betclic 42%
The model gave 58% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction correct13:0
Astralis 54%Betclic 46%
The model gave 54% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 79%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3