Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBL#49 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
46%56%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge BBL +10%BBL · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%BBL · 6 maps
Mirage100 Thieves pick
64%56%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +8%BBL · 5 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
50%50%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BBL · 4 maps
Dust2BBL ban
69%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +19%BBL · 0 maps
AnubisBBL ban
45%40%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%BBL · 1 map
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%38%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%BBL · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Mirage
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Anubis
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
100 Thieves 60%BBL 40%
The model gave 60% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
100 Thieves 61%BBL 39%
The model gave 61% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 52%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2