Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
69%65%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +4%HEROIC · 16 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
45%61%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +16%HEROIC · 14 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
64%71%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 13 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
67%69%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even -2%HEROIC · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%64%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +18%HEROIC · 10 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
60%53%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +7%HEROIC · 11 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (46% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
100 Thieves 58%HEROIC 42%
The model gave 58% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction correct17:19
100 Thieves 32%HEROIC 68%
The model gave 68% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
100 Thieves 42%HEROIC 58%
The model gave 58% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 52%
Series resultHEROIC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3