NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT Academy#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Permitta#102 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
33%50%
WBT Academy · 5 mapsedge Permitta +17%Permitta · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%40%
WBT Academy · 2 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%Permitta · 11 maps
MirageWBT Academy ban
57%62%
WBT Academy · 3 mapsedge Permitta +5%Permitta · 9 maps
AnubisWBT Academy pick
50%67%
WBT Academy · 6 mapsedge Permitta +17%Permitta · 5 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
63%25%
WBT Academy · 4 mapsedge WBT Academy +38%Permitta · 4 maps
CacheWBT Academy ban
50%70%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge Permitta +20%Permitta · 6 maps
DefaultPermitta ban
60%29%
WBT Academy · 1 mapedge WBT Academy +31%Permitta · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT Academy remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Default
6. BanWBT Academy remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
WBT Academy 31%Permitta 69%
The model gave 69% on Permitta — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
WBT Academy 36%Permitta 64%
The model gave 64% on Permitta — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 63%
Series resultWBT Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2