NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
25%39%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge ENCE +14%ENCE · 14 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
64%58%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +6%ENCE · 8 maps
AncientENCE ban
71%50%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%ENCE · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%57%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsnearly even -2%ENCE · 3 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
27%40%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsedge ENCE +13%ENCE · 1 map
AnubisENCE pick
43%75%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge ENCE +32%ENCE · 4 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%56%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge ENCE +6%ENCE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickENCE take Anubis
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderCache (55% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
MOUZ NXT 50%ENCE 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
MOUZ NXT 32%ENCE 68%
The model gave 68% on ENCE — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
MOUZ NXT 56%ENCE 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 55%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3