Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
42%67%
Privateer · 8 mapsedge Phantom Academy +25%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
MiragePhantom Academy pick
43%60%
Privateer · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +17%Phantom Academy · 6 maps
AncientPhantom Academy ban
44%43%
Privateer · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
30%50%
Privateer · 6 mapsedge Phantom Academy +20%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
CachePrivateer ban
40%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%33%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Privateer +7%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
67%40%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +27%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Cache
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Ancient
6. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Privateer 31%Phantom Academy 69%
The model gave 69% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Privateer 55%Phantom Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on Privateer — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 50%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2