Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#181 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNoir Verse ban
46%57%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsedge Revise +11%Revise · 3 maps
Dust2Noir Verse ban
46%57%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsedge Revise +11%Revise · 3 maps
MirageRevise pick
64%57%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Revise · 3 maps
NukeRevise ban
50%50%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 0 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
50%33%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Revise · 2 maps
AnubisRevise ban
45%50%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Revise +5%Revise · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge Revise +10%Revise · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickNoir Verse take Cache
4. PickRevise take Mirage
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Noir Verse 48%Revise 52%
The model gave 52% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Noir Verse 54%Revise 46%
The model gave 54% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 51%
Series resultRevise 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2