MESA Pro Series Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
43%55%
1337 · 3 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +12%Chinggis Warriors · 16 maps
Dust21337 ban
50%50%
1337 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%60%
1337 · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
50%46%
1337 · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Chinggis Warriors · 9 maps
Mirage1337 ban
40%50%
1337 · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
1337 · 0 mapsedge 1337 +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Cache1337 pick
50%50%
1337 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1337 remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. Pick1337 take Cache
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. Ban1337 remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
1337 57%Chinggis Warriors 43%
The model gave 57% on 1337 — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
1337 35%Chinggis Warriors 65%
The model gave 65% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 75%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2