NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
68%56%
Honvéd · 15 mapsedge Honvéd +12%Misa · 23 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
53%42%
Honvéd · 15 mapsedge Honvéd +11%Misa · 15 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
67%47%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +20%Misa · 11 maps
NukeMisa ban
57%43%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +14%Misa · 10 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
29%46%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 9 maps
AncientMisa ban
58%50%
Honvéd · 8 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Misa · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +7%Misa · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Honvéd 61%Misa 39%
The model gave 61% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Honvéd 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
Honvéd 70%Misa 30%
The model gave 70% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 54%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3