BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
50%57%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Astralis +7%Astralis · 3 maps
NukeNemesis pick
79%33%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +46%Astralis · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Astralis · 2 maps
MirageAstralis ban
69%57%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Astralis · 3 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
50%43%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Astralis · 3 maps
OverpassAstralis ban
43%29%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Astralis · 3 maps
DefaultAstralis pick
67%50%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Dust2
2. BanAstralis remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickAstralis take Default
5. BanAstralis remove Overpass
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 89%Astralis 11%
The model gave 89% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 40%Astralis 60%
The model gave 60% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
Nemesis 50%Astralis 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 63%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3