Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 3:13
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 13:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLuminosity ban
29%55%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge GamerLegion +26%GamerLegion · 7 maps
AncientLuminosity ban
50%54%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even -4%GamerLegion · 9 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
40%50%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge GamerLegion +10%GamerLegion · 6 maps
NukeGamerLegion ban
60%40%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge Luminosity +20%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 2 maps
Dust2GamerLegion ban
50%40%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +10%GamerLegion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
2. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
3. BanLuminosity remove Inferno
4. BanGamerLegion remove Nuke
5. BanLuminosity remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
Luminosity 69%GamerLegion 31%
The model gave 69% on Luminosity — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 58%
Series resultGamerLegion 3:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1