European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage1win ban
50%33%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge ARCRED +17%1win · 8 maps
AncientARCRED ban
33%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge 1win +17%1win · 4 maps
Dust21win pick
71%70%
ARCRED · 3 mapsnearly even +1%1win · 6 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
63%57%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge ARCRED +6%1win · 3 maps
OverpassARCRED ban
50%33%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +17%1win · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%67%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge 1win +7%1win · 2 maps
Default1win ban
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%1win · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Overpass
2. Ban1win remove Default
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Mirage
6. BanARCRED remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
ARCRED 58%1win 42%
The model gave 58% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
ARCRED 47%1win 53%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
ARCRED 67%1win 33%
The model gave 67% on ARCRED — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 55%
Series result1win 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3