HopLan 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJulie&Cie ban
30%50%
Julie&Cie · 6 mapsedge Strael Bora +20%Strael Bora · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%57%
Julie&Cie · 5 mapsedge Strael Bora +13%Strael Bora · 3 maps
Dust2Strael Bora ban
36%50%
Julie&Cie · 7 mapsedge Strael Bora +14%Strael Bora · 0 maps
AnubisJulie&Cie pick
56%40%
Julie&Cie · 5 mapsedge Julie&Cie +16%Strael Bora · 1 map
MirageStrael Bora ban
25%50%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsedge Strael Bora +25%Strael Bora · 0 maps
NukeJulie&Cie ban
60%57%
Julie&Cie · 1 mapnearly even +3%Strael Bora · 3 maps
DefaultStrael Bora pick
57%50%
Julie&Cie · 3 mapsedge Julie&Cie +7%Strael Bora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJulie&Cie remove Nuke
2. BanStrael Bora remove Mirage
3. PickJulie&Cie take Anubis
4. PickStrael Bora take Default
5. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
6. BanJulie&Cie remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (44% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Julie&Cie 50%Strael Bora 50%
The model gave 50% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Julie&Cie 68%Strael Bora 32%
The model gave 68% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Model check result
Model favoriteStrael Bora · 59%
Series resultJulie&Cie 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2