ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#203 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legion#194 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Legion pick
43%50%
Nas · 3 mapsedge Legion +7%Legion · 2 maps
AncientLegion ban
50%50%
Nas · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Legion · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%60%
Nas · 3 mapsedge Legion +17%Legion · 1 map
MirageNas ban
50%60%
Nas · 2 mapsedge Legion +10%Legion · 1 map
AnubisNas ban
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Legion · 1 map
CacheNas pick
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Legion · 1 map
DefaultLegion ban
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Legion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Anubis
2. BanLegion remove Ancient
3. PickNas take Cache
4. PickLegion take Dust2
5. BanLegion remove Default
6. BanNas remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Nas 40%Legion 60%
The model gave 60% on Legion — the map was taken by Nas.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Nas 36%Legion 64%
The model gave 64% on Legion — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 64%
Series resultNas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2