ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
madlikewizardswin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arcade#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemadlikewizards ban
40%45%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge Arcade +5%Arcade · 7 maps
Nukemadlikewizards pick
60%36%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +24%Arcade · 7 maps
Infernomadlikewizards ban
60%70%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 6 maps
Dust2Arcade ban
40%33%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +7%Arcade · 5 maps
CacheArcade pick
40%63%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge Arcade +23%Arcade · 4 maps
AncientArcade ban
50%33%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +17%Arcade · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmadlikewizards remove Inferno
2. BanArcade remove Ancient
3. Pickmadlikewizards take Nuke
4. PickArcade take Cache
5. BanArcade remove Dust2
6. Banmadlikewizards remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
madlikewizards 47%Arcade 53%
The model gave 53% on Arcade — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
madlikewizards 26%Arcade 74%
The model gave 74% on Arcade — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 60%
Series resultmadlikewizards 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2