NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
56%24%
Misa · 23 mapsedge Misa +32%Lilmix · 13 maps
MirageMisa ban
39%30%
Misa · 14 mapsedge Misa +9%Lilmix · 16 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
46%63%
Misa · 9 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Lilmix · 12 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%41%
Misa · 0 mapsedge Misa +9%Lilmix · 13 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
50%40%
Misa · 10 mapsedge Misa +10%Lilmix · 1 map
NukeLilmix ban
43%50%
Misa · 10 mapsedge Lilmix +7%Lilmix · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
Misa · 4 mapsedge Lilmix +6%Lilmix · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Ancient
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
Misa 47%Lilmix 53%
The model gave 53% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Misa 63%Lilmix 37%
The model gave 63% on Misa — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Misa 60%Lilmix 40%
The model gave 60% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 59%
Series resultMisa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3