HopLan 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Citronnade ban
36%50%
Julie&Cie · 7 mapsedge Citronnade +14%Citronnade · 0 maps
AncientCitronnade pick
30%50%
Julie&Cie · 6 mapsedge Citronnade +20%Citronnade · 0 maps
InfernoJulie&Cie ban
38%60%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsedge Citronnade +22%Citronnade · 1 map
AnubisCitronnade ban
50%50%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Citronnade · 0 maps
MirageJulie&Cie ban
25%50%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsedge Citronnade +25%Citronnade · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Julie&Cie · 3 mapsedge Julie&Cie +7%Citronnade · 0 maps
NukeJulie&Cie pick
60%40%
Julie&Cie · 1 mapedge Julie&Cie +20%Citronnade · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJulie&Cie remove Mirage
2. BanCitronnade remove Anubis
3. PickJulie&Cie take Nuke
4. PickCitronnade take Ancient
5. BanCitronnade remove Dust2
6. BanJulie&Cie remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Julie&Cie 26%Citronnade 74%
The model gave 74% on Citronnade — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Julie&Cie 53%Citronnade 47%
The model gave 53% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Model check result
Model favoriteCitronnade · 50%
Series resultJulie&Cie 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2