HopLan 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Citronwin 13:4series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:4
Dhalaloss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheDhala ban
50%40%
Citron · 0 mapsedge Citron +10%Dhala · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
Citron · 0 mapsedge Citron +10%Dhala · 1 map
NukeCitron ban
50%60%
Citron · 0 mapsedge Dhala +10%Dhala · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCitron remove Nuke
2. BanDhala remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Citron 50%Dhala 50%
The model gave 50% on Citron — the map was taken by Citron.
Model check result
Model favoriteCitron · 50%
Series resultCitron 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1